I recently read an article where someone asked for advice on changing your bet size while playing slots. The idea was, when you get ahead, you raise your bets to try to hit a bigger win.
The winner of the largest slot prize ever ($39,710,826.36) had to beat odds of 16 million to one. You can read more on our how to wins slots guide. How to calculate house edge. The game’s jackpot symbol is a golden “Megabucks Eagle” which depicts the slot’s distinctive logo. The only thing is, landing even one of these crucial symbols along the payline requires the player to beat odds of 1 in 368. Knowing this, the odds against spiking all three at once come to an astronomical 1 in 49,836,032 – or (1/368) 3.
Over the years, I’ve also seen questions about betting more when you’re losing to try to make up for past losses when you hit a win.
These look like two different questions, but they’re actually the same question. And the answer should be the same to both questions.
In the article I just read, the answer was decent, but it didn’t cover the real reasons in enough depth. Anyone asking either of these questions doesn’t understand how slot machines work. They also don’t really understand how expected value and long term expectation works.
Slots and Expected Value
Every slot machine in existence, whether located in a casino or online, has a built in house edge. The house edge is how the casinos make money, and it’s impossible to legally overcome the house edge on a slot machine in total. What I mean by “in total” is that slot machines make money collectively.
A few players win more than they lose in the short term, and a few lucky players win a big enough progressive jackpot to come out ahead. But overall, the slot machine industry is wildly profitable.
Expected value is a term often used in gambling that is a way to express the value of a betting decision. It’s used most often in poker to determine the best way to play a hand in a certain situation. You can also use it in games like blackjack to determine the best way to play a hand.
In games like poker and blackjack, you can make strategy decisions based on expected value. Bets on slot machines also have an expected value, but they’re all negative. A negative expected value means that, on average, you’re going to lose money.
Here’s an example of expected value on a slot machine.
If a slot machine has a house edge of 5% and you bet $1 on every spin, the expected value is -.05 per spin. On an individual spin, you might lose your entire $1 or win something, but the expected value is the amount you expect to lose on average over thousands of spins.
Expanding this example, if you make 500 bets in an hour, you’re expected value is -$25. In other words, you can expect to lose $25 an hour playing this slot machine. Once again, this is an average, so in any single hour, you can lose more or win.
The house edge is the same whether you bet $1 or $100 per spin. It’s also the same if you lost the last three spins or won the last three spins. The house edge doesn’t change, so changing your bet sizes doesn’t help you win more often.
Slots Long Term Expectation
This is going to sound similar to what you learned in the last section because it’s closely related. The mistake many slots players make, like the ones asking the two questions in the opening section, is thinking past results in some way change future results.
But, if nothing you can do changes the house edge, how can you believe that you should raise your bets after a losing streak or after a winning streak?
The belief is that because the long term results must come very close to equaling the expected results that there must be a correction one way or another after a winning or losing streak. But the problem with this is that the house edge and expectation are based on a large number of outcomes.
Instead of it being based on 10 or 100 spins like many players act, it’s based on hundreds of thousands or millions of spins. Even if you win 10 spins in a row, it doesn’t change the odds of what’s going to happen on the next spin because the machines are based on such a large number of spins.
I’m trying to show you why without getting into complicated mathematical principles, but you can run the math on the effect of short streaks in large pools of results to prove what I’m saying is true.
The belief many players have about short term streaks is made worse when they guess correctly about the next result after a streak. This reinforces what they want to believe, even though the math shows it isn’t true.
If you win 10 spins in a row, what do you think is most likely to happen on the next spin? Some players say a loss, because the machine is due for a loss. Other players say a win, because the machine is hot. How can both opinions be true?
The fact is that neither opinion is true based on why they think they’re correct. The true chance of a win or loss is 100% based on how often the machine is programmed to produce a winning spin.
Is It Ever Correct to Alter Your Slots’ Bet Size?
When I play slots, I operate in what I call the “jackpot or bust” mode. I set aside a bankroll to chase a jackpot and keep playing until I either hit a jackpot or run out of money. Most of the time, I run out of money, but every once in a while, I get lucky and hit a small jackpot.
I know that, in the long run, I’m going to lose unless I hit a big slots jackpot. I’m okay with this, just like I’m okay with buying a lottery ticket chasing a big prize. The odds of winning are low, but I’m willing to risk a set amount for the chase.
I always bet the minimum amount on my chosen slot machine that allows me to qualify for a jackpot. I tend to look for machines that have a low bet threshold to unlock the jackpot, because I want to take as many spins as possible.
If you buy a lottery ticket, do you ever spend more money than the ticket costs? Do you give the store clerk $5 for a $3 ticket and not expect to get your $2 in change?
This is how I feel about betting more than I need to while playing slots. This is why I never bet more than the minimum to qualify for a jackpot while playing slots.
The question of changing your bet size while playing slots has two answers. The first answer is if you’re betting more than the minimum, then you should bet less. The second answer is that it doesn’t matter if you change the size of your bet for any other reason. As long as you understand that the more you bet the more you lose, you can do whatever you want. It’s your money, and you can play any way you like.
Conclusion
You’re welcome to change the size of your bet while playing slots any time you like. It doesn’t matter if you’re winning or losing, changing the size of your bet isn’t going to alter your chances to win. The only thing that matters is the house edge you’re working against and the average bet size of your wagers.
When you bet more after a win, you’re just going to lose more in the long run. When you bet more when you lose, you’re just going to lose more in the long run. The only way to lose less money playing slots in the long run is to bet less.
The best way to lose less playing slots is to stop playing. But that’s not much fun, and you’re never going to hit a jackpot if you don’t play. I don’t recommend that you stop playing. But use smart money management so your bankroll lasts as long as possible and you have the best chance to hit a jackpot before you run out of money.
The only way you can possibly come out ahead in the long run playing slots is to win a jackpot big enough to cover all of your previous losses. This doesn’t happen often. The best chance to do this is to make the minimum bet that unlocks the chance at the jackpot and hope for the best. Changing your bet size isn’t going to help in the long run.
Entire books have been written about how to beat slot machines. Almost all of them are worthless. Slot machines are “negative expectation” games. And most of them have no skill element. Even the ones that do offer odds that make it impossible to be a long-term winner, no matter how skilled you are.
What’s a “negative expectation” game? It’s a game where the expected value of every be is negative rather than positive. Here’s an overly simplified example:
Suppose you’re playing a slot machine with one prize of $1000. The odds of winning that prize are 1000 to 1. That’s a break-even game. You’ll lose 999 times, but you’ll win once, recouping all your losses. Over the long run, neither you nor the casino stands to win.
But suppose the casino changed the top jackpot for that game from $1000 to $980. Can you see how the casino would then have an edge over the player, mathematically?
That’s how a negative expectation game works. So I’m writing a post about how to beat slot machines, which can’t be beaten in the long run at all. What could I possibly have to say on the subject? You might be surprised. Read on.
1- Understand the Concept of Payback Percentage
In the example I gave above, where the game had 1 in 1000 shot of paying you off at 1000 to 1, the payback percentage was 100%. All the money you put into the machine is eventually paid back. It’s a break even game.
How To Beat The Odds On A Slot Machine Jackpot
But the payback percentage for the game with a top jackpot of 980 and a 1 in 1000 shot of winning has a payback percentage of less than 100%. The difference between that payback percentage and 100% is the house edge.
The payback percentage is a function of payouts versus the probability of winning those payouts. The game doesn’t have a memory or a cycle. It’s completely random, but the probabilities of the outcomes are known. As a result, in the long run, the payback percentage for a slot machine is going to be under 100%.
They show the payouts for the various combinations, but the machines don’t include the probabilities of achieving those outcomes. It’s impossible to calculate a payback percentage when you don’t know the probability of winning.
Understanding the concept of payback percentage is the 1st step on the road to beating slot machines.
2- Learn Where You CAN Find Information about a Slot Machine’s Payback Percentage
Even though you can’t get specific with a single machine’s payback percentage, you can find general information about slot machine payouts in general. Magazines like Strictly Slots and books like American Casino Guide publish information about slot machine payback percentages.
This information is normally organized by denomination and location. Generally, the higher the denomination of the game, the better the payback percentage. Also, the busier the location of the casino, the better the payback percentage.
When you’re stranded at the airport waiting for a plane, or if you’re sitting at a bar waiting for your buddy to finish his karaoke song, you don’t have many options besides playing the slots there in the airport or the bar. They consider you a captive audience.
As a result, they offer lower payback percentages than casinos in competitive locations do. They do this because they’re not feeling the need to be competitive.
If you want to find the slot machines with the highest payback percentages, you should look at the major casinos on the Strip in Las Vegas. You should also look for the games with the higher denominations as best you can. Of course, you can only afford what you can afford, but the penny slots aren’t as cheap as you might think.
That’s no longer true, if it was even true to begin with. As far as I know, that was a tip that came from a single source.
You can try clocking a game to see what kind of payback percentage you’re actually experiencing, but that doesn’t tell you what the payback percentage is over the long run. It’s just what you’ve experience in the short term. The more spins you make, the more accurate it should be, but you’re talking about thousands of spins, not hundreds.
Here’s how to do that if you want to, though:
Start by recording how much money you bought into the machine for. Then track how much each spin of the reels is as a wager. Count how many spins you make. At the end of the session, record how much you lost. Multiply the number of spins by the amount you wagered per spin.
How To Beat The Odds On A Slot Machines
Divide the amount you lost by the total amount you wagered. That’s the percentage of your action that the machine kept.
Subtract that from 100%, and you have the payback percentage for the machine during that session. You can expect that amount to fluctuate wildly if you record multiple sessions.
3- Slow Down
I’ve seen various estimates of how many spins per hour most players make, but the consensus average seems to be 600 spins per hour. The lowest number of spins I was able to get down to was 400 spins per hour, and that was when I was consciously trying to slow down. I’ve watched some gamblers make what I’m sure were at least 800 spins per hour.
Also, when you’re losing, you can expect to lose less money by making fewer spins per hour. Sometimes this won’t be true in the short term either—after all, this is gambling, and we are talking about random events.
But here’s the predicted loss per hour formula for slot machines: Spins per hour X amount wagered per hour X the house edge = predicted hourly loss
Here’s an example of how that works:
I’m playing a game for $1.25 per spin, and I’m making 400 spins per hour. That’s $500 per hour in action. The game has a payback percentage of 85%, which is the same thing as having a house edge of 15%. My expected loss per hour is $75.
My friend Leyla, though, plays a lot faster on the same machine. She makes 800 spins per hour instead of 400. Her expected loss per hour is $150.
Not only do I have a better probability of going home a winner, but I also have a better probability of losing less money than she does.
4- Consider Playing a Different Game
I’m not bullish on slot machines. The house edge on the slot machines is unknown, but they’re impossible to beat in the long run. And you’re less likely to beat them in the long run, too. That’s because the house edge is so big.
How big’s the difference? Let’s compare some games with some estimated slot machine house edge figures. We’ll assume that you’re playing a “loose” slot machine with a payback percentage of 93%. The house edge on that game is 7%. Blackjack offers a house edge of 1% if you play with perfect basic strategy. Most video poker games offer a house edge of 3% or 4%–less if you find a good pay table. Even craps only has a house edge of 1.41%.
What do your hourly predicted losses look like on those games? At the fastest blackjack tables, you’re probably looking at 200 bets per hour. At $5 per bet, that’s $1000 in action per hour. 1% of that is only an expected loss of $10/hour. At the craps table, you might make 60 bets per hour. At $5 per bet, that’s $300. Your expected loss there is only $4.23.
On a video poker machine, you’ll probably see 600 hands per hour. At $1.25 per hand, you’re looking at $750/hour in action. With a 3% house edge, that’s an expected loss of $22.50 per hour.
On that slot machine we talked about, you’re looking at 600 spins per hour at $1.25 per spin minimum. That’s $750 per hour, but your expected loss is 7% of that, or $52.50 per hour.
No game in the casino will take up more of your bankroll in a short period of time when contrasted with slot machines.
5- You Could Also Try Free Slot Machine Games
For the most part, you can’t beat slot machines by only playing the free games online. But some casinos and websites do offer free games with real cash prizes. Winning any money on such a game is a longshot, but it’s still possible.
Usually the ones which offer money are offering free slot machine tournaments, where they have a prize for someone who wins the most money in a week or someone who makes the most spins in a week.
And if you just like the sights and sounds of a slot machine, but you don’t enjoy losing money, you can just play the free games until the cows come home. You can consider that slot machine “beaten” because you didn’t lose any money to it.
6- Learn How to Win a Massive Jackpot on a Table Game Instead
It might seem like the only way to win a massive jackpot at the casino is by playing a slot machine offering such a possibility.
But my favorite gambling writer Michael Bluejay suggests a system where you can win $100,000. The odds are against you, because even when you’re playing the best table games, you’re facing a mathematical edge. But the odds are still better than winning at slot machines.
All you must do is find a table game where you have a maximum bet of $50,000. Then every time you win, put your winnings back into action. Basically, you’ll be doubling the size of your bet repeatedly. If you can win 14 times in a row, you should have $100,000.
Here’s what the progression looks like:
- $10
- $20
- $40
- $80
- $160
- $320
- $640
- $1280
- $2560
- $5120
- $10240
- $20480
- $40960
After winning 13 bets in a row, you’ll have over $80,000. You don’t have to double the size of your bet this time. Just bet $10,000 and win, and you’ve won $100,000.
Winning at baccarat, craps, blackjack, or roulette 14 times in a row is much likelier than winning a big jackpot on a progressive slot machine.
Most of the time it won’t happen, and if you try this often enough, the house edge will eat up your bankroll. But it’s still a better option than trying to win $100,000 on a slot machine.
7- Play the Most Basic, Boring Slot Machine You Can Find
All the bells and whistles that make modern slot machines so much fun? You pay for all of them in the form of a reduced payback percentage.
How To Beat The Odds On A Slot Machine Wins
If you can find a slot machine with 3 reels and a single pay line that looks like an antique, that’s your best bet at getting a high payback machine game. The bigger and fancier the game is, the worse the payback percentage will be. This means you should avoid games with progressive jackpots. Avoid games with scatter symbols. Avoid games with wild symbols. Avoid games with dozens of paylines.
The top jackpot for most of these basics, boring slot machines will be around 1000 coins, but you’ll be more likely to hit that jackpot than you will to beat a fancier slot machine.
Conclusion
The best way to beat slot machines is by eschewing them in favor of a casino game offering better odds. If you must play slot machines, though, try to keep in mind the tips in this post. Don’t play with money you can’t afford to lose. Be willing to walk away quick if you get lucky. Play as slowly as possible. Stick with games in competitive locations, like casinos. And play the highest denomination games you can afford, even if it means betting fewer coins on fewer paylines.